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Tuesday, 06/03/03

Brad DeLong, via Max Sawicky, discovered a jolly, almost mathematically impossible discontinuity in the administration's consensus employment growth forecast.

This is the Council of Economic Advisors, the Treasury, and the Office of Management and Budget getting together to forecast what payroll employment will look like around the time of the election. They're projecting astonishing job growth, because otherwise they have to project net job losses in Bush's first term. Meanwhile, their own model doesn't account for the plausible consequences to GDP of such implausible growth. To draw a biological analogy, it's like proposing to eat a hamburger every hour for a month, and never poop. 11:30AM «


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